2007
-- Banking, insurance and housing crises
2008 -- Stock market crisis
2009 -- Government debt soared; stock markets
boomed on borrowed stimulus money; the economy
improved little
|
Date*
|
Potential
Developments**
|
|
|
2009 |
|
Late
Sept to early Nov |
If
bank crisis escalates, it is an early indication
that 2010 on will be bad |
1/10
update:
|
Extreme
government action moderated the bank crisis, but
delayed needed painful corrections. |
2010* |
|
January |
Crisis
may appear to lessen temporarily |
3/10
update:
|
Bad
earthquake in Haiti & record worst in Chile
(Feb)
Euro near default in Feb-Mar |
Mid
Mar to mid Apr |
Crisis
may seem contradictory, better & worse |
4/10
update:
|
Bad
earthquake in China
European air commerce hit by Iceland volcano
Top leaders of Poland killed in plane crash |
June
to early Aug * |
#1
most likely date crisis may sharply
begin *
See dates
& charts |
Late
Sept to late Oct * |
#2
most likely date crisis may sharply begin or
intensify |
|
|
2011 |
|
January |
Hyperinflation
accelerates for the next 1-3 years |
Mid
Mar to mid Apr |
Last
date crisis should begin—if not, then it stays
weak |
Mid
June to mid July |
Crisis
may seem eternal and insoluble |
Late
Sept to late Oct |
Crisis
may worsen still more |
|
|
2012 |
|
January |
Crisis
may worsen; peak date of a short crisis |
Mid
Mar to mid Apr |
Crisis
may worsen quickly |
Mid
June to mid July |
Crisis
may become overwhelming |
Late
Sept to late Oct |
Crisis
nears peak if moderate or severe |
December |
If
severe, crisis may peak now (or Dec, '13), but
effects last much longer |
|
|
2013 |
|
January |
If
crisis is weak, it may start ending (<10%
likely) |
Mid
Mar to mid Apr |
If
crisis is moderate or severe, then it seems worse |
Mid
June to mid July |
If
crisis is weak, it may end (<10% likely) |
Late
Sept to late Oct |
If
crisis still exists, then it lasts for up to 20
more years |
|
|
2014-16 |
If
crisis persists, local unrest, violence, crime,
small wars may increase sharply (>60% likely) |
|
|
2019-2030 |
New
global (military?) crises occur, compounding past
problems even more (>60% likely) |
|
|
*Date
accuracy is +/-2 weeks |
**Probable
Events are also key indicators of how the overall
crisis is developing.
If minor events happen during the
above dates, then the crisis is decreasing.
If severe events happen during the
above dates, then the crisis is increasing. |
|
|
|